Comments on: The output gap is the trojan horse of the fiscal compact http://florincitu.wordpress.com/2012/02/20/the-output-gap-is-the-trojan-horse-of-the-fiscal-compact/ A look at financial markets and government policies through the eye of a skeptic Thu, 23 May 2013 14:25:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: florincitu http://florincitu.wordpress.com/2012/02/20/the-output-gap-is-the-trojan-horse-of-the-fiscal-compact/#comment-1724 Tue, 21 Feb 2012 13:13:45 +0000 http://florincitu.wordpress.com/?p=1280#comment-1724 @JohnnyF
Indeed.

]]> By: JohnnyF http://florincitu.wordpress.com/2012/02/20/the-output-gap-is-the-trojan-horse-of-the-fiscal-compact/#comment-1723 Tue, 21 Feb 2012 12:57:53 +0000 http://florincitu.wordpress.com/?p=1280#comment-1723 “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”
― Friedrich von Hayek

]]> By: Sefan Balica http://florincitu.wordpress.com/2012/02/20/the-output-gap-is-the-trojan-horse-of-the-fiscal-compact/#comment-1709 Mon, 20 Feb 2012 20:33:40 +0000 http://florincitu.wordpress.com/?p=1280#comment-1709 Then the question is which one is close to the reality?
The mean.Always the mean. :) I’m joking. The mean can be massaged too.

It’s great you had a chance to learn from Walter Enders.

]]> By: Adrian T. http://florincitu.wordpress.com/2012/02/20/the-output-gap-is-the-trojan-horse-of-the-fiscal-compact/#comment-1708 Mon, 20 Feb 2012 18:01:52 +0000 http://florincitu.wordpress.com/?p=1280#comment-1708 @Florin
1. the software Eviews – I installed an open source alternative: http://www.sofastatistics.com/home.php
It should be enough for the moment.
2. the recommended books – I got my hands on both books. :)

Thank you!

]]> By: florincitu http://florincitu.wordpress.com/2012/02/20/the-output-gap-is-the-trojan-horse-of-the-fiscal-compact/#comment-1707 Mon, 20 Feb 2012 17:13:53 +0000 http://florincitu.wordpress.com/?p=1280#comment-1707 @Adrian
The papers I put there should be a good start. For econometrics a good book is of my professor Walter Enders, Applied Econometric Time Series. The other good one is Time Series Analysis by A. Hamilton. But the best way is to run the models in Eviews and play with the results.

]]> By: Adrian T. http://florincitu.wordpress.com/2012/02/20/the-output-gap-is-the-trojan-horse-of-the-fiscal-compact/#comment-1706 Mon, 20 Feb 2012 17:02:20 +0000 http://florincitu.wordpress.com/?p=1280#comment-1706 @Florin Citu
The politicians don’t seem to acknowledge the risk associated with their decisions which are mostly based on wishful thinking.

“If euro area is serious about fighting fiscal excess why not set the target a surplus and not a deficit. Only then all this effort will be more credible.”
And how would then their banker friends make money if the states would stop borrowing and be self sufficient? :D

Do you know any good books about the terms you used here like potential GDP/fiscal cycle/Kalman Filters etc.?

Thank you! Adrian

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