Bancile centrale nu au vesti bune pentru cresterea economica

Saptamana trecuta am avut trei banci centrale care au anuntat deciziile de politica monetara: ECB, The Fed si BNR. Deciziile nu au surprins piata dar comunicatele contin informatii noi cu privire la cum vad cele trei institutii evolutiile viitoare ale cresterii economice, inflatiei si dobanzilor.

Mr. Draghi believes markets need help sometimes and Europe’s social model is done

Last week Mr. Draghi  the ECB governor gave two interviews. One to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung  (FAZ)and the other to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Both are very interesting and worth reading. I found a part in each interview that stood above the rest.

Lender of last resort does not imply bailout

The “markets” are demanding that ECB becomes a “lender of last resort”. Even some very famous economists from across the pond are screaming for the ECB to become a “lender of last resort”. In my view ECB is already one, just not one that matches the new twisted definition. The “markets” are not asking just for more liquidity they are demanding a total bailout of a bad system.

Only two options left for the euro zone

As expected european politicians got themselves in a tight corner (very bad Nash equilibrium). The only ways out are now: break up or ECB becomes lender of last resort. Recent history shows that politicians will manage to convince ECB to accept the lender of last resort function. It does not mean that it is the good choice, it only means that the break-up issue will be pushed few years into the future.

Prognosis negative from the ECB, the Fed and the RBA

We had a very interesting week so far. Interest rate decisions from few major central banks – Reserve Bank of Australia, FED and the ECB –Greece took euro zone to the gates of abyss and back and the start of the G20 meeting. Still, it is not over and we have to wait for the week-end most “interesting” decisions in recent history were taken during this time.