QN 11.12.2012 from FCA

Ppolitica monetara a BNR are doua obiective; preturi stabile si curs stabil. Pentru a aproxima cat mai corect miscarile viitoare ale BNR este nevoie sa intelegi ce se intampla cu preturile si cu cursul de schimb.

Florin Citu is the founder of FLORIN CITU ADVISORY , an independent macroeconomic research and consulting firm. More details will be available in English on our page soon. Until then please contact us at office@florincituadvisory.com

QN 26.11.2012 from FCA

As good as it gets for Romanian unemployment?

Starting  this week the Florin Citu Advisory reports will be available in English also. In the current issue of Economia 5.11.2012 we look at the unemployment numbers and ask the question: is this level structural?

Testul de volatilitate a politicilor economice

De la inceputul anului Romania a trecut pe scena politica prin trei guverne si este in mijlocul unui proces de suspendare a Presedintelui. Politica fiscala a trecut de la un deficit bugetar de 1.9% cu o crestere economica estimata de peste 2% la un deficit bugetar de 2.1% cu o crestere economica estimate de 1.5%. Cursul de schimb s-a depreciat aproape 7 procente iar banca centrala a stopat ciclul de scadere al dobanzilor.

Deficitul de cerere imun la politicile economice

Banca Nationala a estimat in fiecare trimestru din 2008 si pana astazi un deficit de cerere in crestere. Mai mult de ficare data a impins in viitor momentul in care cresterea economica va ajunge din nou la potential. Inca o dovada ca trebuie schimbate radical politicile economice.

Latest data confirm weakening Romanian economy

Last week we had a flurry of data releases for Romania. If we were to use one word to describe the view about the economy from these data it would be: worrisome. In the same time the data should not surprise as the beginning of the year was hit by bad weather. However, the data, as bad as it wass, should have been expected as over the last 36 months Romanian economic policies were not designed to promote (short or long term) growth. Over this period the evolution of the economy was mainly driven by the dynamic of the EU27 economy.

Romania dupa 3 ani de FMI

Acum cateva zile FMI a publicat un raport care prezinta relatia cu Romania din ultimii trei ani ca pe un succes. Dar graficele din raport, prezentate mai jos, arata o economie cu potential de crestere redus.