More on GDP forecasts for Romania

Is good to see that I am one step ahead of the mainstream media. At least in Romania.

Today the story about GDP forecasts for the Romanian economy was taken a step further by Ziarul Financiar in the sense that it added few more forecasts. You can read all about them in the article and if you do not speak Romanian the main story is in the picture below.

There are two observations I would like to make:

– for 2011 all forecasts are very close to 1.5%. Too good to be true and too weird. So, no brave soul is ready to revise the short term lower. For what is worth I think there is a very good chance we finish the year on the negative or zero.

– for 2012 there is a big difference between the forecasts of the International Institutions and those of the commercial banks. I guess the upward bias in the forecasts of the IMF, EC, EBRD is alive and well. I have to go with JP Morgan here. 2012 does not look well and we should prepare accordingly.

The road to recovery is long and the policies implemented in Romania make it bumpier.

4 thoughts on “More on GDP forecasts for Romania

  1. I am truly curious where from that 1.5% or whatever growth will be reported as being generated… Same chewed exports? Oh, yes, agriculture. I really feel in a surreal picture.
    By the way (personal curiosity) do you know any bank, operating in Ro, who financed a business based solely on business plan (no collaterals)? Thanks

    1. I do not know of any bank that will finance a business in current environment. To finance a start up is almost impossible by a bank. Why don’t you try a private equity fund? Some of them might have a venture capital section.

  2. I did talk to quity funds – they are interested in big numbers (which not my case). Anyway, as I said, the question was my curiosity alone.

    But the other side of the story is that I don’t see how Ro economy will grow based only on prices increase and not on ideas (who are not financed by banks). At least this is my understanding of the “collaterals” concept…
    I guess this was what I really tried to say🙂

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