For weeks now, the Romanian officials have been hinting that the Q3 growth numbers for Romania will be outstanding. This is what they say in a very confident and loud voice. When asked about the main drivers for these results the voice gets softer and the impeccable diction turns into mumbling. Last night on the state TV station, President Basescu provided more insight into those numbers. Apparently the quarterly growth will be something out of this world. Also, it was good to hear that besides agriculture the other drivers were construction and tourism. And of course the other main driver for growth was the good wisdom of the Romanian government. Harder to quantify but nonetheless mentioned by the President.
For this great day in Romanian economic history I say you do the following things.
First, wait for the official numbers. If they are as good as the President predicted, enjoy them. At least for half the day. While enjoying the number you can try and answer to the questions: How did the President predict the GDP so well and what’s the point in waiting for the official numbers?
Second, after you calm down take few moments and identify those economic policies that spurred growth in the last three years in Romania. Please be so kind and let me know what you found.
Third, by now you should be late in your day and running low on energy. Perfect time to allow doubt to enter your mind. Ask this very simple question: where have I seen this before? As it is late in the day and you most probably lack the energy to find the answer to this question alone, I will help you out. Look at the graph below. In 2008 Q3 numbers were outstanding. And then see what followed. Bear in mind that at that the world and Romania were coming after few years of close to potential economic growth.
Fourth, this is your homework. What are the chances that what followed after Q3 2008 will happen again?