Nu cred ca am fost luat in seama prea tare de cei care conteaza si care iau decizii in numele nostru. Totusi acelasi mesaj reiese din comunicatele FMI. Sa le luam pe rand.
Pe 22 Iunie FMI spunea : “Romania’s economic performance under the program remains strong (nu sunt de acord dar sa zicem) . GDP growth is projected to pick up in the second half of the year (FMI vedea o revenire in partea a doua anului acum cateva luni, ce s-a schimbat ?), inflation remains in check, and the fiscal and external positions continue to improve. ”
Pe 14 August FMI spunea:
“The subdued economic activity is mainly due to heightened political uncertainty (FMI sustine ce incercam sa demonstrez si ce spune literatura de specialitate – volatilitatea politica arecosturi reale) and the slowdown in the euro area.”
Mai mult : “Economic activity is expected to remain subdued in the near term due to diminished confidence, the recession in Europe, low EU-financed investment, and the impact of the drought on agriculture. The economy is projected to gradually recover from early 2013 (revenirea a fost impinsa in 2013 deja), with trend growth reaching about 3 percent (aici FMI exagereaza si in analiza de luni in raportul ECONOMIA o sa explic de ce) over the medium term and unemployment slowly declining.
Dar foarte important: “Risks to the outlook are mostly on the downside. A prolonged political crisis could hamper effective economic policy making, increase risk premiums and financing costs, further depreciate the exchange rate, and depress investment. A deeper recession or financial crisis in the euro area, given strong trade and financial linkages, would decrease Romanian exports, tighten bank credit, and drag down confidence and domestic demand. On the upside, a speedy normalization of the political situation and acceleration of reforms or a stronger global recovery could boost market sentiment and activity.”
Din punctul meu de vedere mesaul FMI este clar- Pe termen scurt pentru a avea crestere economica este nevoie de eliminarea incertitudinii induse de clasa politica.
Iar pentru cei interesati uitati aici concluziile unui studiu recent ” Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty, Scott R. Baker,a Nicholas Bloom,b and Steven J. Davis (Iunie 2012)”:
“Our policy uncertainty index surges around major federal elections, 9/11, the Gulf
Wars, the Lehman bankruptcy and TARP bailout, debates over the stimulus package, and
the debt ceiling dispute. We see higher ‗base‘ levels of our index since 2005 as well as
larger spikes, and even higher levels since 2008. We also find that our news-based index
of policy-related economic uncertain accounts for a larger share of the high-frequency
variation in overall economic uncertainty in the past 10 years, as compared to the
previous 15 years.
Finally, we conduct a VAR analysis using our new policy-related uncertainty
index to investigate its role as one potential driver of real economic variables such as
employment and GDP. Using Cholesky orderings to construct orthogonal shocks, we find
that a policy uncertainty shock equal in size to actual increase in the index value from
2006 to 2011 foreshadows drops in private investment of 16 percent within 3 quarters,
industrial production drops of 4 percent after 16 months, and aggregate employment
reductions of 2.3 million within two years. These findings reinforce concerns that policyrelated
uncertainty played a role in the slow growth and fitful recovery of recent years,
and they invite further research into the effects of policy-related uncertainty on economic