Guvernatorul valideaza concluziile unui raport FCA

In FINANCIARIA 26.08.2012 FLORIN CITU ADVISORY arata ca BNR controleaza evolutia cursului de schimb prin intermediul operatiunilor de REPO.

Ieri Guvernatorul Isarescu a fost citat de Bloomberg “The repo cap “is the way to move more rapidly and effectively than regular interest-rate changes,” and the impact on the exchange rate is “more effective,” Governor Mugur Isarescu said yesterday” – confirmand concluziile din analiza FCA.

Graficul de mai jos preluat din raportul FCA prezinta relatia dintre evolutia cursului de schimb si sumele injectate de BNR in piata monetara prin operatiunile REPO.

Florin Citu a infiintat FLORIN CITU ADVISORY , firma independenta de servicii financiare care ofera analiza economica si consultanta pentru institutii publice, private si investitori. Mai multe detalii pe site-ul firmei.

5 thoughts on “Guvernatorul valideaza concluziile unui raport FCA

    1. Today it seems like it – common knowledge. But if you read my analysis you would see that the REPO instrument is a recent one. NBR has used direct FX interventions to control RON volatility. In the same time, the REPO instrument was not used by the NBR to control FX volatility. I show that the NBR was worried about capital outflows and the FX depreciation was just a result of this action.

      Everyone knows that the central bank uses the interest rate to control inflation. How many do know the mechanism and the timing?🙂

  1. Mugur Isarescu talked about this explicitly in 2009-2010. One good outcome of the crisis, he thought, was the creation of a large and liquid government bond market, which would allow the BNR to pursue its monetary policy via more market-like, “orthodox”, mainstream schemes, typically used by other central banks, than the more “unorthodox” interventions, pressures and so on it had to rely on previously to do the job in the Bucharest money market.

    1. @Bogdan

      I doubt that M.I. had in mind FX volatility when talking about the bond market. In fact it was the new depth of the bond market that led to the depreciation from April to July this year. there is nice grpah, maybe I’ll use it ECONNOMIA today, that shows govt bonds owned by Foreigners and the FX rate.

      By using the REPO to control the F the NBR does not implement a more transparent and credible monetary policy. It just shows that every time will choose the instrument most relevant to influence the exchange rate – thus making the policy instrument a stochastic (random) variable.

  2. Un mediu economic competitiv este benefic in primul rand consumatorului pentru ca reduce preturile. In Romania scaderea preturilor nu este asociata cu o crestere a competitivitatii dar mai degraba cu recesiunea. Aceasta situatie este surprinsa foarte bine in graficul urmator – parte a raportului saptamanal ECONOMIA al FLORIN CITU ADVISORY, publicat pe 27.08.2012. In aceasta saptamana ne uitam la ce inginerie a trebuit guvernul sa faca ca in celasi timp sa creasca deficitul bugetar, sa scada prognoza de crestere economica si sa mentina PIB-ul nominal. In plus aratam ca deprecierea RON nu sperie pe nimeni in economia reala in Romania.

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