Efectele masurilor de politica fiscala depind de reactia politicii monetare

In ultima perioada am impresia ca am ramas, cel putin in spatial public, singurul sustinator al stimularii fiscale a economiei prin reducerea taxelor. In acelasi timp se pare ca exista foarte mare confuzie la nivel de “policy makers” in legatura cu efectele stimularii fiscale a eocnomiei prin cresterea cheltuielilor publice. In cazul reducerii taxelor se minimalizeaza efectele positive pentru PIB-ul potential iar in cazul cheltuielilor publice se exagereaza efectele positive pentru cresterea economica. In acelasi timp, se pare ca nimeni, inclusiv banca centrala, nu vrea sa explice care este rolul politcii monetare in fata unui soc fiscal. Astfel, banca central declara ca o crestere a salariilor in secotorul bugetar ajuta cererea agregata dar nu explica care este reactia implicita din partea bancii centrale pentru a sustine acest rezultat. Mai mult, nu explica care sunt efectele pentru inflatie si dobanzi reale.

Norocul nostru este ca in Ianuarie 2012 a aparut o publicatie in American Economic Journal care “ataca” chiar aceste probleme. Lucrarea prezinta in detaliu efectele pentru economie ale socorilor fiscale si mai ales cum aceste efecte depind de natura socului fiscal: temporar sau permanent. Mai mult, lucrarea se uita separat atat la efectele cresterii cheltuielor publice cat si la scaderea taxelor sau cresterea transferurilor. In fine, lucrarea mai prezinta si ce rol joaca politica monetara pentru fiecare tip de soc fiscal.

Lucrarea este imporatanta si prin faptul ca este scrisa de 17 autori care lucreaza la diferite banci centrale si insitutii financiare din lume (e.g. FMI). Autorii folosesc atat modelele din aceste instiutii dar si alte modele econometrice consacrate pentru a identifica efectele socurilor fiscale atat pe termen lung cat si pe termen scurt.

Pentru cei interesati titlul lucrarii este Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models, iar autorii sunt: Günter Coenen, Christopher J. Erceg, Charles Freedman, Davide Furceri, Michael Kumhof, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Jesper Lindé, Annabelle Mourougane, Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, Carlos de Resende, John Roberts, Werner Roeger, Stephen Snudden, Mathias Trabandt and Jan in’t Veld.

Pentru toci ceilalti care nu au acces la AEA am sa redau cateva pasaje care explica mult mai bine ce am tot spus eu pana acum referitor la politica fiscala.

The Role of Monetary Accommodation
As we will show below, the tendency for multipliers to increase with the degree of monetary accommodation is found for all fiscal instruments except for labor income taxes. The mechanism is the same as for government consumption, in that all fiscal stimulus measures boost inflation by stimulating aggregate demand. With no monetary accommodation, the inflation pressures lead to an upward movement in real interest rates and thereby offset, in part, the effects of the fiscal stimulus on GDP. In contrast, with monetary accommodation and nominal interest rates held constant, the increases in inflation give rise to decreases in real interest rates. As a result, accommodative monetary policy complements the fiscal policy stimulus and intensifies its effects on real GDP. The indirect effects often differ considerably across models, reflecting that features such as the duration of price and wage contracts can markedly affect the linkage between aggregate demand and inflation.

Government Spending versus Taxes and Transfers

Different types of fiscal measures operate on aggregate demand through different channels. Government investment and government consumption directly raise aggregate demand, while increases in transfers and reductions in taxes operate mainly through their effects on personal disposable incomes, as well as through their effects on incentives in the case of changes in distortionary taxes.

The output effects of temporary cuts in labor income tax rates (Figure 10) are not very large, and in fact are smaller than for general transfers under monetary accommodation. These multipliers turn out to be nearly invariant to the duration of monetary accommodation, because although labor tax cuts stimulate the demand of financially-constrained agents, they also boost potential output through their effect on labor supply. This dampens the inflationary impact of the tax shock, giving monetary accommodation less traction to boost the multiplier.

Si aici concluziile studiului:
The simulations of the policy and academic models used in this study suggest that temporary fiscal stimulus can play an important role in mitigating the effects of the kind of prolonged downturn that the world experienced following the 2008 financial crisis. There is a robust finding across all models that fiscal policy can have sizeable output multipliers, particularly for spending and targeted transfers. Under normal conditions, in which monetary policy reacts to fiscal stimulus by raising interest rates, the multipliers derived from the policy models are broadly in line with those reported in the empirical literature. But they are significantly higher in circumstances in which monetary policy is supportive, by accommodating stimulative fiscal actions through holding interest rates constant for some period of time. More persistent stimulus, if the additional stimulus is measured in years rather than decades, is even more effective if monetary policy remains accommodative. But a permanent increase in fiscal deficits has significantly lower multipliers at the outset, and has negative output effects in the long run.

Pe scurt: pentru a avea un impact in economie politica fiscal trebuie sa fie sustinuta de politica monetara, dar cu implicatii negative pentru inflatie si dobanda reala, iar socurile fiscale trebuie sa fie temporare si nu permanente. In plus orice efect al polticii fiscale este temporar iar amplitudinea depinde de numarul de ani in care politica monetara ramane mai relaxata decat ar fi fost in lipsa socului fiscal.


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