Oricat am incerca cu propaganda si citate din economisti care nu mai sunt de mult preintre noi, nu putem sa ascundem realitatea. Realitatea economica o simitim fiecare in viata de zi cu zi si de ceva timp nu mai este aceeasi cu cea prezentata de un ministru la televizor.
Urmatoarele trei grafice arata de ce ma indoiesc de cifra pentru cresterea economica in 2012, de ce nu cred in cresterea economica din 2013, si de ce nu cred in povestea cu increderea investitorilor straini.
1. Ritmul de crestere al exporturilor si importurilo a ajuns negativ, ca in 2009. In august 2012 spuneam asta
2. Ritmul de crestere al masei monetare,M1 si M3 (enodgena-creata de banci) a ajuns la zero si cred ca trece in teritoriul negativ.
3. Investitiile de portofoliu, investitii in instrumente foartre lichide si care arata neincrederea in politcile economice, au atins maximul in 2012 !!! Este interesanta si comparatia cu 2008 dar cu alta ocazie.
Florin Citu 
Crezi ca trece M3 pe minus? Si daca DA… care ar fi efectele?
Trei feluri de minciuni: grosolane, subtile si plagia… pardon, statistici!
Realitatea economică 😀 o glumă bună, scurtă, ocazional subtilă și care se pare că nu-și pierde din savoare în timp ..
Nu găsesc primul link la articolul cu LTCM; dar ăsta ce urmeaza e similar:
David Vinear, CFO Goldman Sachs, August 2007: “We were seeing things that were 25-standard-deviation events, several days in a row”.
Click to access wp_08_13.pdf
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KE20Dj02.html
Dijkstra – unul din marii oameni ai secolului trecut despre realitatea economică:
“An unpleasant complication is that the world of finance is so disreputable and that a whole bunch of new euphemisms has to be introduced to cover up this new layer of dishonesty. For instance, there is no such thing as “making money”: some people succeed in transferring money out of the pockets of others into their own. A number of years ago, the institutions that try to become rich by speculating at someone else’s expense —in Western Civilization known as a “bank”— needed a new euphemism to cover their activities and they started to refer to themselves as “the financial industry”. Lately, they have started to refer to their more elaborate extortion schemes as “(sophisticated) banking products”! Industries are expected to produce something, aren’t they?” EW Dijkstra 1992
http://www.cs.utexas.edu/~EWD/transcriptions/EWD11xx/EWD1165.html
Paul Volcker:
Volcker has long been suspicious of financial products that most people can’t understand. One of his four grandchildren, Colin Zima, heard about it a lot when he studied financial engineering.
“He would constantly joke about me studying to be a crook,” says Zima, 25, who worked at UBS for a year before taking a job in 2007 as a statistician at Google Inc. in San Francisco.
din pacate pagina e jos acum ;(
http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/bloomberg-specials/13781-what-paul-volcker-wants.html
Realitatea economică? Nu e reală 🙂