Doua observatii pentru domnul guvernator

Tot din discurusul guvernatorului de acum cateva zile :”Frankly, I understand that the general public is not familiar with concepts like overheating or positive output gap, but I believe that annual growth rates to the tune of 20% for retail sales and in excess of 10% for wages are more than self-explanatory. Still, with all the obvious signs – even for non-economists – that the economy is growing fast, we are criticised for not fighting deflation.
The recent experience has made us painfully aware that – despite the large amount of information provided through a wide range of communication vehicles – our messages get through to a much lesser extent than we had thought. Therefore, we should enhance our efforts in escaping the professional jargon and trying to be as accessible as possible when explaining to the public the rationale behind our monetary policy decisions.”

Am doua observatii:

– cred(sper) sincer ca domnul guvernator se uita si la nivel nu numai la dinamica. O crestere de 20% cand abia ai depasit nivelul din 2008 si cand ai somajul mai mare ca atunci nu are aceleasi implicatii ca atunci cand economia creste puternic de 4 ani si somajul este la minimul istoric.

– daca domnul guvernator este ingrijorat de presiuni inflationiste atunci de ce mentine dobanzile din piata cu mult sub dobanda de politica monetara (aproape de zero)? Ar trebui, daca doreste sa fie consecvent si mai ales credibil, ca dobanzile sa fie aproape de dobanda de politica monetara si astfel ar transmite ce gandeste BNR. In acest moment BNR spune ca pericolul il reprezinta inflatia dar actioneaza ca si cum deflatia este pericolul mai mare. Consecventa nu a fost niciodata o caracteristica a politicii monetare din Romania (nici transparenta). Dar poate este momentul sa faca si banca centrala un efort minim si sa lege retorica de actiuni.


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