I wrote here that I do not think Romania can avoid recession, not just a technical one, in 2012.
FT Alphaville presents a similar story for the eurozone. To support their claim they use the recent PMI data.
Now, let’s take this analysis further and bring it home. Here is the historical correlation of quarterly GDP for EU27 and Romania. It seems to be a pretty safe bet that if they go down we, i.e. Romania, will follow.
The link to the article in Financial Times is broken.
http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/03/23/are-magazine-covers-good-predictors/
What would politicians say regarding the 2nd graphic?
“Don’t you see it? Romania is an European country! It’s in the good company of our European friends. This is why we swim together economically. And this was solely made possible through our own efforts. We have to be proud of it!” 🙂