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Despre criza din 2008-trei episoade scurte (episodul 3)

Romania avea una dintre cele mai mari rate de crestere economica in perioada 2005-2008. Mai multi factori au contribuit- codul fiscal care a facut sa scada nivelul taxelor din economie (costuri mai mici), contextul international, aderarea la UE. Bunastarea generata in acele momente nu a fost administrata foarte bine, din pacate. Consumul (excesiv dupa unii) sau investiile in piata imobiliara nu reprezinta pentru mine problema principala a acelei perioade. Pe fondul unei economii care crestea au fost stoapte reformele si crescute cheltuielile publice. Dintre acestea cel mai mult ne-a durut stoparea reformelor. De fapt, inca platim pentru aceasta decizie.
Continue reading “Despre criza din 2008-trei episoade scurte (episodul 3)”

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Despre criza din 2008, in trei episoade scurte (episodul 2)

In episodul precedent am vorbit despre structura economiei. Concluzia era simpla. O economie flexibila, si am explicat ce inteleg prin asta, face fata mai bine unor socuri decat una rigida. Ne intereseaza structura economiei ca o eventuala explicatie pentru caderea economiei in 2008 si revenirea foarte lenta. Continue reading “Despre criza din 2008, in trei episoade scurte (episodul 2)”

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Despre criza din 2008, in trei episoade scurte

Am doua probleme cu criza economica din 2008. Caderea economiei locale a fost mai puternica ca in alte tari din regiune si perioada de revenire mai lunga. Pentru un economist intrebarea este simpla; cat din structura economiei la acel moment a determinat acest rezultat si cat a fost determinat de interventia statului (banca centrala sau guvern)? Continue reading “Despre criza din 2008, in trei episoade scurte”

Indicatorul “dobanda” respinge ipoteza atacului speculativ

Dupa cum am anuntat lucrez la un o analiza a politicii monetare din Romania. Octombrie 2008 reprezinta un capitol important. In studiul publicat pe site-ul BNR Lucian Croitoru identifica un atac speculativ folosind cursul valutar zilnic, dobanzile tranzactionate in piata interbancara si vanzarile nete de valuta. Primele doua informatii sunt publice pe site-ul BNR dar nu si vanzarile nete de valuta. Oricine incearca sa testeze concluziile studiului BNR nu are cum atata timp cat datele folosite nu sunt publice. Continue reading “Indicatorul “dobanda” respinge ipoteza atacului speculativ”

To reach its potential Romania needs to “relax”

I am not a fan of “output gaps”, this measure of how much are resources in the economy employed. But central banks all over the world use it and thus we have to at least mention it.
In theory an output gap shows how far is the economy from its potential. A positive gap means that current GDP is above its long term potential while a negative one shows that the opposite. Continue reading “To reach its potential Romania needs to “relax””

Romania has to decide: with or without monetary policy

Romania has never embraced Inflation Targeting whole heartedly. It is not just the inflation outcome that says that it is also the design of the policy. The NBR has gone out of the way to create a list of reasons for why inflation target could not be achieved. Even more, the NBR research and that of few local economists has gone to great length to show that due to an unobservable but somehow measurable effect, the Ballassa-Samuelson, inflation could not fall below some certain level and the disinflation process would be long and arduous. I spoke about those here and here.
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Continue reading “Romania has to decide: with or without monetary policy”

More on the NBR’s October 2008 policy response

Information asymmetry is another argument used by NBR in to explain the massive intervention in the FX market in October 2008. As I said before, I think the size of that intervention was exaggerated not due to the size but to the fact that it was unsterilized. But, what asymmetry are they talking about? Continue reading “More on the NBR’s October 2008 policy response”